2010 ACC Basketball Preview

     In the 2009-2010 season, ACC regular season and tournament champion Duke went on to win the NCAA National Championship, the league's second in a row.  Not bad for a "down" year.  This season, Duke figures to be the favorite again, but can they live up to last year’s success and possible preseason #1 ranking? Or will a veteran Virginia Tech team and Tobacco Road foe North Carolina steal the national spotlight?  Inside I’ll give you my predictions for what’s in store for the 2010-2011 season.

The Coaches

Coaching Carousel
Team	Out	In
Boston College	Al Skinner	Steve Donahue
Clemson	Oliver Purnell	Brad Brownell
Wake Forest	Dino Gaudio	Jeff Bzdelik

     Three of the league’s 12 teams switched coaches this past off season.  In my opinion, Boston College is the only one of the three that may be better off than they were last year.  Al Skinner struggled in two out of the past 3 seasons, but he had a lot of success at BC, winning 247 games in 13 years.  Steve Donahue comes to BC from Cornell, where he guided the Big Red to three straight NCAA appearances, reaching the sweet sixteen last season.  Clemson lost Oliver Purnell when he accepted the DePaul head coaching job, and replaced him with Brad Brownell, who spent the last 4 seasons in the Horizon League at Wright State.  The most curious hire to me is Wake Forest’s Jeff Bzdelik.  Bzdelik has NBA experience, but take away two successful seasons at Air Force from 2005-2007 and his career coaching record is 61-89.  He spent the last three seasons at Colorado, where he was only 10-38 in Big 12 play.

On the hot seat: Sidney Lowe, NC State

     In four seasons at NC State, Sidney Lowe has managed to win a grand total of 20 ACC games and failed to finish better than a 9th place tie in the ACC.  His saving grace has been recruiting where last year he pulled in an 11th ranked recruiting class according to ESPN.  This year’s class is ranked #7 and is highlighted by McDonald’s All-American power forward C.J. Leslie.  It’s his fifth year running the program, so all the recruits are his now and there will be no excuses.  The Wolfpack have a proud basketball tradition and I have to believe Sidney Lowe is running out of time to make something happen.

The Players

      A total of 9 players players from the ACC were selected in the 2010 NBA Draft, 5 of them in the first round.  That’s a lot of high-caliber talent lost from the league, and it’s especially painful for Georgia Tech and Florida State, both of which saw more than one player leave school early for the draft.  Among all teams, only 33 (55%) of the league’s 60 starters from 2009-2010 are back this year, the least since 2006.

Kyrie Irving (5) and Harrison Barnes (7)

        While the ACC lost a lot of talent this offseason, it reloads as good as anyone around.  Six of the top 25 recruiting classes belong to ACC schools, headlined by UNC (3), Duke (6), and NC State (7) in the top 10.  After losing All-ACC guard Jon Scheyer to graduation, Duke will look to top ranked recruit Kyrie Irving to run the Blue Devils’ offense.  6’6” wing Harrison Barnes will try to help North Carolina return to it’s winning ways as they try to replace forwards Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, and twins David and Travis Wear.  So who will end up on the All-ACC team this year? Here’s my preseason ballot:

G	Malcolm Delaney	VT
F	Kyle Singler	Duke
G	Nolan Smith	Duke
F	Tracy Smith	NCST
G	Dorenzo Hudson	VT

ACC Player of the Year: Malcolm Delaney, VT

ACC Freshman of the Year: Kyrie Irving, Duke

The Teams

Preseason Predictions
1	Duke
2	VT
3	UNC
4	NCST
5	Clemson
6	FSU
7	Maryland
8	GT
9	BC
10	Wake
11	Miami
12	UVA

    Despite losing point guard and ACC player of the year runner-up Jon Scheyer, the Duke Blue Devils will be the favorites to win the ACC again in 2010-2011.  Their roster is still oozing with talent and it’ll be their league to lose.  Behind them, it’s really anyone’s for the taking.  The most likely candidate to contend with Duke is Virginia Tech.  The Hokies finished fourth in the league last year and even after losing fifth man JT Thompson, still return more than anyone else in the league.  As always, UNC has reloaded with talent and it’s not likely Roy Williams will need the NIT to reach 20 wins again this year.  I picked NC State to finish 4th, even though as I mentioned above, they haven’t finished above 9th before under Lowe.  However, the Wolfpack bring back 2nd team All-ACC forward Tracy Smith, the 4th most career starts behind VT, BC, and Duke, and have a monster recruiting class.  If they don’t finish in the top half of the ACC, something is seriously wrong. After the top 4, things get a little less clear.  I’m pretty confident Miami and UVA will bring up the rear, and if Wake wins more than 5 or 6 ACC games with all the players they lost, it will be one heck of a coaching job by first year man Jeff Bzdelik.

Lost the most: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Last Season: 20-11 (9-7 ACC), NCAA Tournament second round 
Key Losses: Al-Farouq Aminu, 6’9” F (15.6 ppg, 10.7 rpg); Ish Smith, 6’0” G (13.2 ppg, 6.0 apg); Chas McFarland, 7’0” C (7.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg); L.D. Williams, 6’4” G (8.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg)
Key Additions: J.T. Terrell, 6’3” G; Melvin Tabb, 6’8” F; Carson Desrosiers, 6’10” C; Travis Mckie 6’6” G/F 

     The Deacons were hit hard by graduation and the draft this offseason, losing 4 out of 5 starters, not to mention their coach Dino Gaudio.  The only holdover is All-ACC Freshman guard C.J. Harris, who started 21 games last season.  Gone from last year’s team is 66% of their scoring and 79% of their rebounds, and they return only 31 career starts.  To put that in perspective, five Virginia Tech players have 35 or more career starts.  Wake does have a very talented recruiting class, but they will be the youngest team in the ACC next year.

Most likely to surprise: Boston College Eagles

Last Season: 15-16 (6-10 ACC) 
Key Losses: Rakim Sanders, 6’5” G/F (11.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg); Tyler Roche, 6’7” F (7.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg) 
Key Additions: Gabriel Moton, 6’2” G; Danny Rubin, 6’5” G/F

     Boston College is somewhat of an unknown with first year coach Steve Donahue.  The Eagles struggled last year, their first without All-ACC point guard Tyrese Rice, but they return the second most career starts and rebounds behind Virginia Tech.  BC made the NCAA tournament just two years ago with most of these players, and will be a team that could steal a lot of wins from some of the younger, inexperienced teams in the league.

Most to prove: Virginia Tech Hokies

Last Season: 25-9 (10-6 ACC), NIT quarterfinals 
Key Losses: JT Thompson, 6’6” F (20.1 mpg, 7.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg)
Key Additions: Jarrell Eddie, 6’7” G/F; Tyrone Garland, 6’1” G

     The Hokies enter the 2010-2011 season coming off winning the most games in a season since the 1994-95 season and returning a core of seasoned veterans.  Injuries have depleted the frontcourt, but expectations are still very high for this year’s team.  The Hokies have two All-ACC caliber guards in Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson to compliment the talented big man Jeff Allen.  Tech has just missed the tournament the past three years, and has drawn criticism for easy scheduling.  Coach Greenberg drew up a challenging out of conference schedule this offseason and the Hokies will have to navigate it successfully to prove they belong in the NCAA Tournament.