It’s the day Hokie basketball fans have been waiting for since August. The Cassell’s 50th birthday bash continues with the celebration of the year. On Saturday the Hokies face top-ranked Duke and, for the first time ever, host ESPN’s College GameDay on national television. Virginia Tech is desperate for a quality win, making Blacksburg a virtual minefield for Duke and the perfect stage for redemption for the Hokies. It’s certain to be one of the biggest games in Virginia Tech basketball history, will it go down as one of the Hokies’ greatest triumphs?
The Setup
| #1 Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies |
| Cassell Coliseum (9,847) - Blacksburg, VA |
| TV: ESPN |
| Crew: Dan Shulman (play-by-play), Dick Vitale (color), Erin Andrews (sideline) |
The Hokies enter Saturday’s contest with a 18-8 (8-5 ACC) record, good enough for fourth place in the ACC pecking order. Circumstances aside, the Hokies are not where they wanted to be at the beginning of the season. Losses to bottom feeders Georgia Tech and UVA are the difference between Tech’s current position and their preseason ranking of second.
Duke, despite their #1 ranking, isn’t quite where they wanted to be either. The Blue Devils (26-2, 12-1 ACC), lost über talented freshman Kyrie Irving after just eight games and he remains out indefinitely. It’s scary to think how good they could be at this point with him in the lineup. The remaining Dukies have still held their own, with only two blemishes on their 2011 record. Duke’s two losses have both come in true road games, where they are 5-2: a 61-66 decision at Florida State and a 78-93 loss to St. John’s.
| Starting Lineups | ||||||||||
| Virginia Tech | Duke | |||||||||
| Pos. | Player | Ht. | Cl. | PPG | RPG | Player | Ht. | Cl. | PPG | RPG |
| G | Green | 6’4” | So. | 11.1 | 2.3 | Smith | 6’2” | Sr. | 21.4 | 4.9 |
| G | Delaney | 6’3” | Sr. | 19.1 | 3.3 | Curry | 6’2” | So. | 9.0 | 1.9 |
| G/F | Bell | 6’7” | Sr. | 7.0 | 5.4 | Singler | 6’8” | Sr. | 17.2 | 6.3 |
| F | Allen | 6’7” | Sr. | 13.8 | 10.3 | Ma. Plumlee | 6’10” | So. | 7.2 | 8.8 |
| F | Davila | 6’8” | Jr. | 7.8 | 5.3 | Kelly | 6’11” | So. | 6.8 | 4.0 |
Game Notes
- Tempo = outcome? The Hokies’ eight ACC wins featured an average of 69 possessions. The five games in which the Hokies lost averaged only 62.
- Duke opponents score 59.7% of their points inside the 3-point line. That’s the third highest total in the nation.
- The Blue Devils average 8.5 made 3-pointers per game.
- Virginia Tech leads the ACC in field goal shooting (46.1%) and rebounding defense (31.4) in ACC games.
- The Hokies are 2-3 versus the #1 ranked team under Seth Greenberg. All three losses have come by 3 points or less.
| Team | VT | DU |
|---|---|---|
| ACC Record | 8-5 | 12-1 |
| RPI | 63 | 5 |
| PPG | 72.2 | 82.9 |
| Opp. PPG | 62.5 | 63.9 |
| Reb. Margin | +2.9 | +3.6 |
| Turn. Margin | +1.8 | +3.4 |
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.5% |
| Def. FG% | 40.9% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 39.1% |
Flashback: Virginia Tech and Duke last met on February 21st, 2010 in Durham, NC. The Hokies struggled from the field and Jeff Allen played just 19 minutes as Tech fell 55-67 to the 6th ranked Blue Devils. The Hokies and the Blue Devils have met 9 times since 2005, with Duke holding a 7-2 advantage. Duke needed a half-court heave to beat the Hokies in December 2005, the last time the two schools met when Duke was ranked #1.
On the road: The Blue Devils have played just 7 true road games this season and dropped 2 of them. Throwing out the game versus UVA (a sloppy 56-41 mess), Duke holds just a 1% field goal shooting advantage over their opponents. The deciding factor has been the ability for teams to turn the Blue Devils over. In 4 wins, Duke has averaged nearly 14 assists to just over 9 turnovers. Duke coughed it up 32 times over two losses and averaged only 9 assists.
#1 in Cassell: Cassell Coliseum has hosted the nation’s top ranked team three times.
| January 10th, 1983 | Memphis | W 69-56 |
| February 17th, 1996 | Massachusetts | L 58-74 |
| January 13th, 2007 | North Carolina | W 94-88 |
The Matchup
Duke enters Cassell Coliseum bearing the best tandem Hokie fans will see all season outside of our own Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen. Nolan Smith leads the Devils with 21.4 points per game and makes a strong case for first team All-America honors. Wingman Kyle Singler chips in 17.2 points per game, leads the team in three pointers, and grabs 6.3 boards per contest. The Blue Devils have four players that are downright lethal from long range. When Andre Dawkins checks in for Duke’s small lineup, they will live and die by the three point shot.
The Hokies will have tough defensive matchups pretty much across the board. That being said, foul trouble would be everything short of a death sentence for Tech. The Hokies do have an offensive advantage in the paint, however, and if Jeff Allen can get hot it improves the chances of an upset dramatically. For that to happen though, Victor Davila has to bounce back from a subpar performance at Wake. I expect Tech to have an advantage on the offensive glass, and second chance points could be a real equalizer for the Hokies.
The backcourt matchup is very intriguing. Set aside Seth Curry and his debut in Cassell Coliseum and you have the top two scorers in the ACC in Malcolm Delaney and Nolan Smith. Smith averages 5.3 assists per game, so if he doesn’t beat you himself, he’ll find someone else to do it. A shocker, at least to me, is that Smith even gets to the foul line more than Malcolm Delaney. We all know that #23 will bring the A game to Cassell Saturday, so a lot will ride on how aggressive and effective Erick Green can be. I expect the Hokies to go zone, and the length of Delaney and Green can force turnovers and give the Hokies some much needed transition baskets.
Prediction
Here we are folks. The ESPN GameDay bus is parked outside Cassell and we're only a matter of hours before the cameras start rolling. The Hokie basketball program is taking a giant leap tomorrow, the only question is will they be able to nail the landing?
It will take nothing short of a herculean effort from our Hokies to take down the Blue Devils tomorrow night. Too many turnovers, we lose. Too many fouls, we lose. The margin for error in a game like this is next to nothing.
Honestly, in looking for something to sway me towards one way or another, there wasn't much to be found. Logic says go with Duke. Looking at the season as a whole, they're a superior offensive team and winning their games by an average of 19 points. But the Blue Devils are very vulnerable to a bad shooting night, especially on the road. The key will be whether the Hokies can effectively pressure the ball on the perimeter, forcing turnovers and rushed shots. All numbers and logic aside, this one is going to be decided by who wants it the most. History says to never count out the Hokies. Duke hasn't finished a regular season with less than 3 losses since 1999. The Hokies need this win. It's time for the Hokies to make our own luck.Hokies 77 Duke 74
Also see:
- The Key Play: No. 1 Duke Preview
- Hokie Guru: TEABAG PAULUS!!!!!
- The North Endzone: Weekly Predictions: VT - Duke
- Gobbler Country: Here We Go: Virginia Tech Looks for Marquee Win vs. Duke
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College GameDay Weekend Events
Friday, February 25th
| 12-1pm | Chalk Talk w/ Seth Greenberg | Dietrick Dining Hall (D2) | Included with cost of lunch |
| 5-7pm | College GameDay poster-making party: <link> | Cassell Coliseum | FREE + FREE PIZZA |
Saturday, February 26th
| 10am-noon | ESPN College GameDay (Doors open 8:30am) | Cassell Coliseum | FREE |
| 8-9pm | ESPN Saturday Primetime | Cassell Coliseum | Sold out |
| 9pm | Virginia Tech vs #1 Duke | Cassell Coliseum | Sold out |
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