Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Game Preview: Virginia Tech (10-4) at North Carolina (11-4)

         Virginia Tech puts its 6 game win streak on the line this Thursday versus the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill.  North Carolina had a familiar disappointing start to the season, but the Tar Heels remain undefeated at home including a win over then #10 Kentucky.  The Hokies have been on fire, outscoring opponents by a margin of 25 points over the last 5 games, but 7-foot center Tyler Zeller and the Tar Heels present a stiff challenge for Tech.


Starting Lineups
Virginia Tech North Carolina
Pos. Player Ht. Cl. PPG RPG Player Ht. Cl. PPG RPG
G Green 6’4” So. 9.3 1.8 Drew II 6’2” Jr. 5.1 2.3
G Delaney 6’3” Sr. 18.6 3.3 Strickland 6’3” So. 9.5 2.7
G/F Bell 6’7” Sr. 6.4 6.0 Barnes 6’8” Fr. 11.7 5.5
F Allen 6’7” Sr. 13.4 9.8 Henson 6’10” So. 9.9 8.4
F Davila 6’8” Jr. 7.0 4.9 Zeller 7’0” Jr. 14.5 7.6

Game notes:

  • Tech has won only 3 games since 1967 against Carolina, one of those being in the Dean Smith Center when UNC was ranked #4 in the polls.
  • 6’10” sophomore John Henson ranks 18th nationally with 2.7 blocks per game.
    Team VT UNC
    Conf. Record 1-1 1-0
    PPG 70.9 79.4
    Opp. PPG 59.7 67.1
    Reb. Margin +1.4 +6.3
    Turn. Margin +2.9 +1.5
    FG% 46.7% 46.4%
    Def. FG% 39.7% 40.0%
    3PT% 31.5% 35.5%
  • Henson is shooting a miserable 33.9% from the free-throw line. (Foul him!)
  • North Carolina carries zero scholarship seniors on their roster.
  • Sophomore guard Leslie McDonald leads the team with 24 made 3-pointers shooting 45.3% from long range.
  • Malcolm Delaney needs 21 points to move into 4th place on the Tech all-time scoring list behind only Bimbo Coles, Dell Curry, and Dale Solomon.
  • Jeff Allen ranks 25th nationally with 9.8 rebounds per game. 

    The Tar Heels lean heavily on 7 foot junior center Tyler Zeller, who leads the team in scoring and is second in rebounds and blocks.  Junior Larry Drew II and freshman Kendall Marshall share time at the point guard position and both have done a much better job of taking care of the ball of late.  This is a different team than the one the Hokies beat 74-70 in Blacksburg last season. Only 3 players that played more than 1 minute in that game are still on the roster; John Henson scored 14 points off the bench, Larry Drew II scored 9, and Dexter Strickland scored 1 point in 15 minutes of action.

     The Heels did struggle on the road in their ACC opener against Virginia, falling behind by 11 in the second half before rallying to win 62-56.  North Carolina shot poorly, but limited turnovers and made 17 of 22 second half free-throws to make up for it.  You can’t expect Tech to get many calls in the Smith Center so the Hokies will have to be extremely disciplined in defending and alert on offense.  Roy Williams always looks to turn up the heat in transition and with our lack of depth preventing run out opportunities will be essential.

     In last year’s win, Tech was able to limit the Tar Heels to 7 fast break points, in part because the Hokies only gave up 3 steals.  The good news for the Hokies is sophomore point guard Erick Green did get 29 minutes of action against UNC last season and had 3 assists and only 1 turnover.  Looking at the last five games, both the Hokies and the Tar Heels have been shooting and taking care of the ball extremely well.  But Tech’s numbers fall off sharply on the road, while Tech’s opponents shoot 7% better in their home gyms.  If this game were played in Blacksburg I might pick differently, but with Tech’s depleted roster I think UNC’s depth and style of play will be too much for the Hokies.

Prediction: Hokies 68 North Carolina 75

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