Friday, January 7, 2011

Game Preview: Virginia Tech (9-4) vs. Florida State (11-4)

         The Hokies will attempt to lock up win number 500 inside Cassell Coliseum at 3pm on Saturday versus the Florida State Seminoles.  The game is a crucial one for the Hokies, who will be looking to avoid an 0-2 start in ACC play.  It’s an important game for the Noles too, who would like to get to 2-0 before hosting #1 Duke on Wednesday.  Tech has had difficulty with Florida State’s tough defensive teams in recent years, losing the past 3 matchups dating back to February 2009.  Can the embattled Hokies break through against a talented Florida State squad?


Starting Lineups
Virginia Tech Florida State
Pos. Player Ht. Cl. PPG RPG Player Ht. Cl. PPG RPG
G Green 6’4” So. 9.1 1.6 Kitchen 6’4” Sr. 10.1 5.3
G Delaney 6’3” Sr. 19.1 3.2 Dulkys 6’5” Jr. 8.3 3.3
G/F Bell 6’7” Sr. 6.5 6.2 Snaer 6’5” So. 7.6 2.9
F Allen 6’7” Sr. 12.5 9.7 Singleton 6’9” Jr. 15.2 8.3
F Davila 6’8” Jr. 6.8 5.2 James 6’10” Jr. 7.2 5.8

Game notes:

  • Florida State is 2nd in the nation in field goal percentage defense (34.7%) and are 4th in blocked shots (7 bpg).
  • Senior forward Chris Singleton is one of only 5 players in the country (and the only forward) to record a triple double this season (22 points, 11 rebounds, 10 steals vs UNC Greensboro)
  • 6’10” 240 lb. Center Bernard James leads the Noles in shooting 62.3% from the field.
  • Deividas Dulkys is the team’s sharpshooter, having hit 27-of-76 threes on the season.  69% of his shots are from beyond the arc.
    Team VT FSU
    Conf. Record 0-1 1-0
    PPG 70.8 72.1
    Opp. PPG 59.8 60.2
    Reb. Margin +2.2 +8.2
    Turn. Margin +2.7 -0.3
    FG% 47.2% 43.2%
    Def. FG% 40.0% 34.7%
    3PT% 32.2% 33.2%
  • The Hokies are 70-8 under Seth Greenberg when holding the opponent to under 40% field goal shooting. FSU is 0-4 when shooting under 40% this season.
  • Virginia Tech holds a 499-148 record inside Cassell Coliseum.

    Florida State is led by junior forward and potential All-American Chris Singleton.  At 6-9 and 227 pounds, Singleton is a dynamic player who can beat you in a lot of ways, shooting 45% from the field and 40% from three.  He’s even better defensively; the reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year has 32 blocks and 36 steals on the season already.  Complementing Singleton is senior guard Derwin Kitchen who not only takes care of the ball well, but also rebounds at an excellent rate for a point guard with 5.3 boards per game.

     This group of Hokies has historically had trouble scoring against the Noles length, only scoring an average of 58.7 points in the last 3 meetings.  In particular, Jeff Allen has averaged  7.0 points per game, 32% FG shooting, and 1 assist to 15 turnovers, all personal-lows versus ACC teams.  Jeff’s been steadily improving this season and I’d argue that he’s due for a big game, but a strained groin that’s limited him in practice concerns me.

     The Noles have a lot of things riding in their favor, including a healthier bench and a significant height advantage in the post.  Florida State does have some weaknesses, namely turnovers (17.2 per game).  Their two worst defensive performances have come in their last 5 games, and their own shooting percentage has dropped to 39%.  I have a feeling if the Hokies are going to pull this one off it’s going to look like the world’s ugliest basketball game, also know as VT vs. Oklahoma State of November 2010.  In the last two meetings, the Hokies and the Noles have combined for a total of 33 assists and 75 turnovers.  When I started writing this I did not plan to pick Virginia Tech. And I’m still not sure I should, despite some recent trends that favor the Hokies.  But the team that takes care of the ball (even just a little bit) is going to have a big advantage in this game.  That leads me to take Tech at home, in a close one.

Prediction: Hokies 70 Florida State 65 (OT)

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